ST. JOHN'S, N.L. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. by John Gushue 5/16/2019 6:51:16 PM These are the 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador election predictions in all 40 ridings. For the 2021 Provincial General Election, advance polls will be held on Saturday, February 6 from 8:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. (half an hour earlier in most of Labrador). Liberal support is at 66% compared with 19% for the PCs. However, there is clear polling evidence that the Andrew Furey government is heading for a landslide. In 2015, there was one consistent data point across all polls, across all modes, across all models and aggregators, and that was the Atlantic region. Regular poll voting is the day set for the election or by-election. At first, the election for the full province was delayed until March 12. This is the hub for all things surrounding the 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election, taking place on Saturday, February 13, 2021. There are other polls like it floating through the cyberspace ether. From here, you can return to the main page for the 2021 NL election, review the overall prediction, or jump to a specific region of the province. Using the images below, you can jump to the Newfoundland and Labrador election predictions or the election results (once all voting is completed). His governing party fell one seat short of an outright majority, taking half of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly. It’s a virtual three-way tie in B.C., where the NDP leads … Newfoundland & Labrador Election Polling: Liberals: 62% (+18) PC: 26% (-17) NDP: 9% (+3) Alliance: 1% (-1) Mainstreet Research / January 27, 2021 / n=877 / MOE 3.3% / IVR (% change with 2019 Election) — Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) January 29, 2021 The Liberal Party is in clear position to win the Newfoundland and Labrador election. One such example is a Mainstreet Research poll from late January: Newfoundland & Labrador Election Polling:Liberals: 62% (+18)PC: 26% (-17)NDP: 9% (+3)Alliance: 1% (-1)Mainstreet Research / January 27, 2021 / n=877 / MOE 3.3% / IVR(% change with 2019 Election). His governing party fell one seat short of an outright majority, taking half of the 40 seats in the … The Angus Reid Institute is a national, not-for-profit organization commissioning research and opinion polls on issues that matter to Canadians United States Governors and Chief Executives Current List, World Election Predictions and World Election Calendar. By David Coletto & Bruce Anderson Coming off of a Liberal sweep of Newfoundland and Labrador in October’s Federal Election, provincial Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador have stormed into a 47-point lead province-wide in our latest survey of 800 eligible voters in the province. The tracker, which is maintained by the CBC is an aggregate of all available Canadian polling data. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. Please also note we reserve the right to revise individual riding predictions until February 12. (Please read an important note below regarding the timing of the 2021 NL election.) The Progressive Conservatives may escape with as few as four, but at this point, keeping 10 seems very unlikely. For quick access to important information, search the Elections NL Hub below. The province went to the polls just two years ago under Liberal Premier Dwight Ball. Leaders of the three major parties square off in tonight's media debate. Check out our new daily segment, the Elections Briefing, This is the hub for all things surrounding the 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election, taking place on Saturday, February 13, 2021. For the first time since 1971, it appears Newfoundland and Labrador are headed towards a minority government. That other election to watch: Newfoundland and Labrador By Tim Powers April 3, 2019 The Rock goes to the polls before school rises for the summer, but the large number of undecided voters means there’s no certainty about the outcome. The CBC reported that 18 out of the 40 ridings, all located within the Avalon Peninsula, would not see voting proceed as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.2 This is specifically due to a surge in Covid cases in that region. However, if the PCs are reduced to their disaster level of four seats, he will probably not be in one of them. Ches Crosbie’s own seat is on the margins and we give him nothing more than a slight nod to remain in the House of Assembly. After the vast majority of votes were cast and counted at polling stations throughout the province, Dwight Ball's Liberals emerged election Liberal candidate hopes … In addition to the regular office hours, the Elections NL call centre operates until 8:00 p.m. each evening. Despite consistent Progressive Conservative leads in polling towards the end of the campaign, including a 9 point lead in the final poll released a day before the election, the Liberal Party led by Dwight Ball won re-election, but … H ow to follow election night with CTV News; Pollster Nik Nanos said that, according to a three-day rolling average released by Nanos Research on Saturday, “minority fever” continues to grip the election. The 2021 NL Election has now been delayed – twice. (Since July 19th, 2019, Nanos' polls are available only behind a paywall, so they are not listed here - excepted those published in other media such as CTV News. It may be several weeks until the remaining ridings get to complete voting, meaning votes will not be counted until perhaps late February or even March. See below for a by-riding breakdown. TORONTO -- New polling numbers show extremely tight races in the battleground provinces of British Columbia and Quebec. NL election day is March 25, 2021. Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island make up the smallest region in national polls, with just 32 seats up for grabs between them. Hotel Investment Tracker - Canada - Baseline Research (Beechwood/Big Picture/Nanos) 2021-03-01. Opinion polling for the 43rd Canadian federal election Data from publicly available polls are represented by coloured dots. The province went to the polls just two years ago under Liberal Premier Dwight Ball. The 2021 election will be the first in which Andrew Furey is the Liberal leader. In 2020, prior to the onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic, Dwight Ball announced he would stand down as Premier and as Liberal leader. The latest polls suggest they might be doing just that. Toronto, May 8 th , 2019 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll ™ among 856 Newfoundland and Labrador voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (40%) say they would support the Liberals, another 4 in 10 say they should support the Progressive Conservatives (42%), a tenth (13%) would support the NDP, and a few support (6%) other parties. To reach the contact centre, please call local or toll-free (1-877) 729-7987. more information Accept. Part of the Logomachian Network. He only assumed his seat in the House of Assembly in October 2020 following a by-election. This adds up to a large Liberal majority, possibly well in excess of our current predicted 29 seats out of 40 for the Liberals. Churence Rogers in eastern and southern Newfoundland won his seat by about 2,000 votes and Scott Simms had about a 4,000-vote margin of victory. Advance polls are usually open one week before regular polling is scheduled to take place. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. ... Get Nanos Time Map today > a new world-class spatial forecaster that visualizes election data and sentiment modelling of 73,000 federal polling stations every month. Follow along for the latest Newfoundland and Labrador election results, updates and analysis at CBC News. The election campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador began as the Liberals' to lose. This is the second election for PC leader Ches Crosbie as well as NDP leader Alison Coffin. For his part, the new premier appears to have strong approval ratings in his brief tenure. According to the Canada Poll Tracker, the CBC is reporting a 41 percent probability that the Conservative Party of Canada would win the 2019 election with a majority government.. Minority governments are out of character for Newfoundland and Labrador, but a stronger-than-expected showing for the Progressive Conservatives and NDP helped deny the Liberals a second majority. Dwight Ball’s resignation led to Andrew Furey holding the seat, while Perry Trimper left the Liberal caucus to sit as an independent. Further, Newfoundland and Labrador has elected governments to landslides before, with Dwight Ball winning 31 out of 40 in 2015 and Danny Williams taking 44 out of 48 in 2007. By Bruce Anderson and David Coletto According to a new Abacus Data random telephone survey of 653 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from February 17 to 25, 2015, the NL Liberals continue to hold a large lead over the PC Party. Poll Averages: Oct.21: CPC 34.4% LIB 33.1% NDP 15.9% BQ 7.7% GRN 6.5% PPC 1.6% OTH 0.4% (Election Result) Oct.20: CPC 32.0% LIB 31.8% NDP 18.0% GRN 7.7% BQ 7.1% PPC 2.5% OTH 1.0% This being a relatively short legislature, there have only been two changes in membership since the last provincial election. Will Furey get his majority and deliver a third term for the Liberals, or is Ches Crosbie destined to become the 15th premier of the youngest province? More than 21,000 cast votes in Newfoundland and Labrador advance poll Polls suggest tight race and frustrated voters with one week to N.L. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. Iowa Senate 41st District Special Election 2021, 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Predictions, Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window), Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window), Current Canadian Premiers & Provincial Governments, Current First Ministers and Chiefs of Government, Current Australian Premiers & State Governments, Andrew Furey to be next N.L. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. Welcome to the live blog for the 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador election. Get the latest numbers and analysis from Éric Grenier on where the Liberals, Conservatives, New Democrats, Greens and … Copyright 2017-2021. Among the ridings not voting on February 13 is Windsor Lake, represented by Opposition Leader Ches Crosbie. Part of the Logomachian Network. There is always some reason for hesitation calling a majority of massive proportions. (Please read an important note below regarding the timing of the 2021 NL election, which is delayed.). No election results will be released on February 13. Under Newfoundland and Labrador law, once a new premier takes over, an election must be called within one year.1 Therefore, this election had to be held no later than August 2021, but Furey has decided to go to the polls a little early and try to get a majority. In comparison, the Liberals are reported to only have a 9 percent chance of a majority election in the upcoming election. The youngest province has been in pre-election mode for weeks, since Premier Dwight Ball promised to send voters to the polls before the end of June. This web site is the creation of P.J. Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results Newfoundland and Labrador Votes 2019: Follow results of the Newfoundland and Labrador election from CBC News. Voter turnout in the rest of Newfoundland and Labrador ranges from the low 50th percentile to the high ’50s but only St. John’s East topped 60 per cent. Just more possibility for egg to land on your face when the votes are counted. Dwight Ball Earle McCurdy Newfoundland and Labrador Votes NL Liberals NL polling … We'll be gathering updates from reporters in the field, and will update you on developments in the election. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. Our own internal calculations show that the Liberal high-water mark could be around 34 seats, which would be near wipeout territory for the province’s opposition. The 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador general election will be held in 2021 to elect members of the 50th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador. Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader steps down ahead of provincial election. As the election looms, Dwight Ball's Grits' lead grew slightly over Ches Crosbie’s PC Party Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals maintain lead in CRA polls | Local | News | SaltWire Saltwire works best with JavaScript enabled. Check out our new daily segment, the Elections Briefing. Copyright 2017-2021. more information Accept. However, there has been a further extension until March 25 for voters to submit their ballots by mail. -- The stage is set for a tight race Thursday between the Liberals and Tories in Newfoundland and Labrador, as incumbent Liberal Premier Dwight Ball … Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window), Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window), Current Canadian Premiers & Provincial Governments, Current First Ministers and Chiefs of Government, Current Australian Premiers & State Governments, Weekend Elections Briefing, March 13-14, 2021: Cuomo, Virginia, Western Australia, Elections Briefing, March 12, 2021: Trump, Georgia, Western Australia, Elections Briefing, March 11, 2021: Rubio, Green Bay, Israel, Virginia Senate 38th District Special Election 2021, Alberta Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, American Election Predictions and United States Election Calendar, Australia Election Predictions and Australian Election Calendar, British Columbia Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, British Election Predictions and British Election Calendar, Canada Election Predictions and Canadian Election Calendar, Contact Electionarium and Electionarium Social Media, Current Election Tracker at Electionarium, Europe Election Predictions and European Election Calendar, List of Australian Premiers and Current Australian State Governments, List of British First Ministers and Chiefs of Government, List of Canadian Premiers and Current Canadian Provincial Governments, Manitoba Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, New Brunswick Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Newfoundland and Labrador Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Nova Scotia Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Ontario Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Prince Edward Island Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Privacy Policy and Legal Matters & Disclaimers, Quebec Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Saskatchewan Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Territories Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Who Is My Governor? You may also reach us at 729-0712 or 729-0789. The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. United States Governors and Chief Executives Current List, World Election Predictions and World Election Calendar. As for the NDP, we suspect they will hold one for sure, one could be a very close win, and the other appears to be a tough loss. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. Amidst the pandemic in the summer, the Liberals elected Andrew Furey to be the new leader and 14th Premier of the province. premier after winning Liberal leadership, NL election delayed for nearly half the province due to COVID-19, Weekend Elections Briefing, March 13-14, 2021: Cuomo, Virginia, Western Australia, Elections Briefing, March 12, 2021: Trump, Georgia, Western Australia, Elections Briefing, March 11, 2021: Rubio, Green Bay, Israel, Virginia Senate 38th District Special Election 2021, Alberta Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, American Election Predictions and United States Election Calendar, Australia Election Predictions and Australian Election Calendar, British Columbia Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, British Election Predictions and British Election Calendar, Canada Election Predictions and Canadian Election Calendar, Contact Electionarium and Electionarium Social Media, Current Election Tracker at Electionarium, Europe Election Predictions and European Election Calendar, List of Australian Premiers and Current Australian State Governments, List of British First Ministers and Chiefs of Government, List of Canadian Premiers and Current Canadian Provincial Governments, Manitoba Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, New Brunswick Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Newfoundland and Labrador Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Nova Scotia Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Ontario Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Prince Edward Island Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Privacy Policy and Legal Matters & Disclaimers, Quebec Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Saskatchewan Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Territories Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions and Results, Who Is My Governor? Finally, this is also the second election with Graydon Pelley leading the NL Alliance; this being the second election of its existence. Otherwise, under the province’s fixed-term election laws, the poll would have been held in 2023 assuming the Liberal government were not defeated in a no-confidence motion. Newfoundland and Labrador election officials have cancelled in-person voting a day before many polling stations were set to open, in response to … So strong are the Liberal poll numbers that our concern as prognosticators is that we are actually underestimating the size of the coming Liberal majority. A March CRA poll suggested a close race between the Liberals and … The 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador general election was held on May 16, 2019, to elect members of the 49th House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador. Two days before the election, voting was suspended in almost half of the province’s ridings. Subscribe for a constituency or national riding map from Nanos. The Liberals lead … About half of Americans say the Senate should vote to convict President Donald Trump and remove him from office in the upcoming impeachment trial (51%), according to a new CNN poll …